The cat is out of the bag. The Pistons are bound for the NBA lottery. After Wednesday’s loss to the Thunder, Detroit is 20-43 with 19 games remaining. The mark is the sixth-worst in the NBA.
At this point, the franchise is more concerned with in-house player development and building a culture. The 1-9 record since the trade deadline might not show it, but Detroit is playing opponents tough. Coach Dwane Casey hasn’t lost the locker room. That’s a positive sign in the early stages of a rebuild.
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Amid the changing of the guard, the Pistons still lack a star player younger than 25. Adding talent, finding that cog to build around, is of the utmost importance. The 2020 NBA Draft might not be the best place to start, but it is a start, and Detroit has a good chance of landing someone with star potential at any slot because of the uncertainty at the top of the order.
So let’s go there. Tankathon.com is a website that simulates draft positioning based on records and odds. Detroit currently has a 9.0 percent chance of landing the No. 1 pick. That, of course, is likely to rise by the end of the season. The three teams that end the season with the worst records all have the same odds (14.0 percent) of landing the top pick, and the Pistons are only one game ahead in the win column of the Hawks and Knicks, who are tied for the second-worst record in the NBA after the Cavaliers.
I jumped into Tankathon on Thursday morning and did five simulations to see where the Pistons might pick. I used co-worker Sam Vecenie’s latest mock draft and most recent big board to make the selections for the franchises picking ahead of Detroit. We’ll repeat this exercise periodically leading up to the June 25 draft.
Let’s tank.
Simulation No. 1
1. Charlotte: Anthony Edwards, G, Georgia
2. Atlanta: Deni Avdija, F, Maccabi Tel Aviv
3. Minnesota: Tyrese Maxey, G, Kentucky
4. Golden State: James Wiseman, C, Memphis
5. Cleveland: Isaac Okoro, W, Auburn
6. New York: LaMelo Ball, G, Illawarra Hawks
7. Detroit: “And with the seventh pick in the 2020 NBA Draft, the Detroit Pistons select … Killian Hayes, guard, Ulm.”
Reasoning: Hayes and the Pistons just seem like a perfect fit. Detroit has a glaring hole at point guard for the future, and the France-born Hayes, who is 18, not only has the lead guard skills Casey covets, but fits the timeline of 19-year-old Frenchman Sekou Doumbouya.
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Hayes’ shooting still has a ways to go, but he’s a great passer and floor general. At 6-feet-5, he has the size to see the court and also possesses a change-of-pace attack with a nice handle and footwork. There’s a craftiness about him that exceeds his age, and one would think that the jump shot would eventually come along.
Hayes’ age and built-in skill set does make him intriguing in this scenario. Detroit has a lot of projects on the roster, and Hayes would fit right in with the timeline the Pistons appear to be on.
Simulation No. 2
1. Golden State: James Wiseman, C, Memphis
2. Chicago: Isaac Okoro, W, Auburn
3. Charlotte: Anthony Edwards, G, Georgia
4. Atlanta: Deni Avdija, F, Maccabi Tel Aviv
5. Cleveland: Obi Toppin, F/C, Dayton
6. New York: LaMelo Ball, G, Illawarra Hawks
7. Minnesota: Tyrese Maxey, G, Kentucky
8. Detroit: “And with the eighth pick in the 2020 NBA Draft, the Detroit Pistons select … Killian Hayes, guard, Ulm.” (Again.)
Reasoning: Based on how this simulation played out, I could see Hayes dropping to the Pistons again. Outside of the Knicks, no team picking ahead of Detroit really needs a point guard right now, and Ball appears to be the consensus best lead guard in this draft — and the no-brainer selection for Manhattan’s basketball team.
Maybe Chicago takes a point guard, but I don’t see it. Coby White has come along in the final weeks of the season, and the Bulls need help on the wing.
Hopefully the next simulation plays out a little differently.
Simulation No. 3
1. Golden State: James Wiseman, C, Memphis
2. Minnesota: Anthony Edwards, G, Georgia
3. Chicago: Deni Avdija, F, Maccabi Tel Aviv
4. New York: LaMelo Ball, G, Illawarra Hawks
5. Cleveland: Isaac Okoro, W, Auburn
6. Atlanta: Obi Toppin, F/C, Dayton
7. Detroit: “And with the seventh pick in the 2020 NBA Draft, the Detroit Pistons select … Killian Hayes, guard, Ulm.”
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I promise I’m not sabotaging the simulation so that the Pistons end up with Hayes. It’s just that Detroit is likely to pick in the Nos. 6-8 range, and, as I said before, I don’t see many teams picking ahead of the Pistons in this scenario going for a point guard.
If you’re against Hayes, hopefully, this next simulation presents a more favorable outcome for you … *click*
Simulation No. 4
1. Chicago: Anthony Edwards, G, Georgia
2. Detroit: “And with the second pick in the 2020 NBA Draft, the Detroit Pistons select … LaMelo Ball, guard, Illawarra Hawks.”
Well, that’s different.
I’m not sure if this makes you any happier, but Ball also fits a glaring need for the Pistons.
He’s a tremendous passer and his size at the point guard position is coveted. He’s also a familiar, glittery name. Ball will sell some tickets early on and bring publicity to the Pistons. That’s needed. Ball has shown the ability to be very good as a pick-and-roll ball-handler and is crafty enough to finish in unique ways.
Now to the bad stuff. The 3-point shooting is a major red flag. He shot 25 percent from 3 in Australia. His shot selection is iffy. I also question if he’ll ever be even an average on-ball defender. From the little I’ve seen and the people I’ve asked about him, he appears to be horrific in that regard. I don’t see him fitting into the culture Casey wants to build here.
The 18-year-old Ball did get better as his season went on, so that’s a positive. I just wonder if he’ll ever be elite or if he can conform to what Casey wants from the position.
While right now I feel like Ball would be the pick at No. 2, I think Avdija could be in play, too. Also, watch out for USC small-ball center Onyeka Okongwu.
Simulation No. 5
1. New York: Anthony Edwards, G, Georgia
2. Atlanta: Deni Avdija, F, Maccabi Tel Aviv
3. Charlotte: James Wiseman, C, Memphis
4. Detroit: “And with the fourth pick in the 2020 NBA Draft, the Detroit Pistons select … Obi Toppin, forward/center, Dayton.”
For the sake of not saying Hayes or Ball, I’ll go in a different direction. I still think point guard is the way to go, but the Pistons do need help at the center position. Toppin, while a bit undersized, fits the bill.
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Toppin could be a good complement to Detroit’s Christian Wood in the frontcourt of the future. Wood is naturally a power forward, and Toppin has the characteristics of a center. He’s an athletic, rim-running big who is useful in DHOs and can attack the basket. Furthermore, he’s shooting 39 percent from 3 on 2.7 attempts per game this year with Dayton, so he clearly has pick-and-pop potential.
A Wood-Toppin frontcourt would generate a handful of highlight dunks per week. It would be a very athletic duo, too. The Pistons could take a flier on a young point guard via trade to address that hole.
Toppin, in the right slot, would make sense for Detroit.
(Photo of LaMelo Ball: Rick Rycroft / Associated Press)
